Tier 1

FL:
open governor race rated lean R
7 US House seats 3 toss-up (FL-14, FL-22, FL-25), 2 lean-R (FL-13, FL-27), and 2 likely-R (FL-07, FL-09)
very tough Senate race last Senate race was won by 12.8% (R) in 2024
TX:
flip R Senate seat rated toss-up; Colin Allred (D) lost the 2024 Senate race by 8.5%
5 US House seats 2 toss-up (TX-15, TX-34), 1 lean-R (TX-35), and 2 likely-R (TX-09, TX-23)
flip R Governor rated lean R
OH:
flip R Governor rated toss-up
flip R Senate seat rated toss-up; Sherrod Brown lost by just 3.6% (R) in 2024
4 US House seats 2 toss-up (OH-07, OH-09) and 2 likely-R (OH-10, OH-15)
longer-term state legislature opportunity 6 seats to break R supermajority in the House
IA:
flip R Senate seat rated toss-up; the last Senate race was won by 12.2% (R) in 2022
3 US House seats 2 toss-up (IA-01, IA-03) and 1 lean-R (IA-02)
longer-term state legislature opportunity 9 seats to flip Senate, 18 seats to flip House

Tier 2

MI:
keep D governor Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited; she won by 10.6% in 2022, while Trump won Michigan in 2024 by 1.4%
keep D Senate seat rated toss-up; Gary Peters is not running; the last Senate race was won by just 0.3% (D) in 2024
3 US House seats 2 toss-up (MI-07, MI-10) and 1 lean-R (MI-04)
legislature flip opportunity 4 seats to flip House
KS:
Senate race rated lean-R; the last Senate race was won by 23.2% (R) in 2022
flip R Governor rated lean-R
longer-term state legislature opportunity 5 seats to break R supermajority in the House
WI:
keep D governor rated toss-up; Tony Evers won by 3.3% in 2022 and is not running
2 US House seats 1 toss-up (WI-03) and 1 lean-R (WI-01)
state legislature flip opportunity 2 seats for Senate and 5 for House
PA:
state legislature hold & close flip 4 seats to flip Senate, D majority in House just 1 seat
4 US House seats 3 toss-up (PA-07, PA-08, PA-10) and 1 likely-R (PA-01)

Tier 3

AK:
Senate race rated toss-up; the last Senate race was won by 7.4% (R) in 2022
open governor race rated toss-up
1 US House seat 1 likely-R (AK-AL)
NC:
longer-term state legislature opportunity 6 seats to flip Senate, 12 seats to flip House
2 US House seats 1 toss-up (NC-11) and 1 lean-R (NC-01)
Senate race rated lean-D; the last Senate race was won by 3.2% (R) in 2022
VA:
3 US House seats 1 toss-up (VA-02), 1 lean-R (VA-01), and 1 likely-R (VA-05)
CO:
3 US House seats 1 toss-up (CO-08), 1 lean-R (CO-05), and 1 likely-R (CO-03)
ME:
Senate race rated toss-up; Collins(R) won by 8.6% in 2020
1 US House seat 1 likely-R (ME-02)
NH:
Senate race rated toss-up; the last Senate race was won by 9.2% (D) in 2022
flip R Governor rated likely R
longer-term state legislature opportunity 5 seats to flip Senate, 23 seats to flip House

Tier 4

SC:
Senate race rated likely R; the last Senate race was won by 20.7% (R) in 2022
1 US House seat 1 likely-R (SC-01)

Why make an electoral plan? One of the core goals of this group has been preserving and driving electoral change. We will continue to do what we have been good at doing: registering, informing, and persuading voters by postcards, letters, and phone calls. Despite the heartbreaking losses of 2024, all the research I've seen says that these strategies work (as part of a larger program of messaging, persuasion, calling, canvassing, and fundraising, of course!).

This doesn't prevent us from doing other important work: to preserve our ability to make electoral change and generally resist Trump's destruction of America. This involves educating the public on the harm being done, especially in key states, collaborating with other local groups to take direct action through protests and other civic actions, training on the best organizing and outreach methods, and more.

What is this electoral plan based on? The tiers reflect an overall prioritization after weighing competitive US House, Senate, and governor races together with Swing Left tracked races, recent Senate margins, and States Win opportunities. The tiers are the resulting work buckets after those factors are considered together. I base the plan on research from Cook's Political Report, The Downballot, States Win, Swing Left, polling averages, and other sources.

Last updated Oct. 7, 2026.