Tier 1

MI
keep D governor rated lean-D; Gretchen Whitmer (term-limited) won by 10.6% in 2022, Trump won Michigan in 2024 by 1.4%
keep D Senate seat rated as toss-up; Gary Peters (not running) won by 1.7% in 2020
3 key US House seats toss-up MI-07 (R), lean-R MI-10, likely-R MI-04
legislature flip opportunity 4 seats for House
OH:
flip R Governor tough race (rated lean-R), but great D candidate
flip R Senate seat rated as toss-up (Jon Husted was appointed, Sherrod Brown lost by just 3.6% in 2024)
2 key US House seats seats OH-09 (D-Captur, toss-up) and OH-01 (D-Landsman, lean-D)
PA:
legislature hold D majority in the State House only by 1 seat
3 key US House seats toss-up PA-07 (R), PA-08 (R), PA-10 (R)

Tier 2

WI
keep D governor rated toss-up; Tony Evers won by 3.3% in 2022 (not running)
key US House seat toss-up WI-03 (R), as well as a tougher WI-01 (likely R)
legislature flip opportunity 2 seats for Senate, 5 for House
AZ
keep D governor rated toss-up; Katie Hobbs won by 0.7% in 2022
legislature flip opportunity 3 seats for Senate, 4 for House
3 key US House seats toss-up AZ-01 (R), AZ-06 (R), likely R AZ-02 (R)
TX:
flip R Senate seat rated as toss-up (John Cornyn won by 9.6% in 2020, Colin Alred lost by just 8.5% in 2024)
3 key US House seats lean-D TX-28, toss-up TX-34 (D), and lean-R TX-15 (R), as well as tough hold after redistricting likely R TX-35 (D)
Gina Hinojosa is running against Abbott for governor, tough but 9/17 polling shows her winning.
IA:
flip R Governor this open seat is rated lean-D
flip R Senate seat rated toss-up; Joni Ernst won by 6.5% in 2020
3 key US House seats toss-up IA-01 (R), IA-03 (R), lean-R IA-02

Tier 3

GA:
flip R governor rated toss-up; Brian Kemp won by 7.5% in 2022
keep D Senate seat rated lean-D; Jon Ossoff won by 1.2% in 2021
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 11 seats for House
NV:
flip R Governor rated toss-up; Lombardo won by 1.5% in 2022
key US House seat lean-D NV-03
legislature hold currently blue
NY:
try to get rid of some of their Rs in the US House of Representatives:
Toss-up flippable: NY-17 (Lawler won by 6.3%)
Lean-D vulnerable: NY-03 (Suozzi won by 3.6%), NY-04 (Gillen won by D+2.3%)
NC:
flip R Senate seat rated lean-D; Thom Tillis won by 1.8% in 2020
legislature long-term flip opportunity 6 seats for Senate, 12 seats for House
tough US House seat - after gerrymandering lean-R NC-01 (D)
FL:
open governor race Rated likely R
several US House opportunities FL-22 lean R; FL-07, FL-09, FL-13 and FL-27 likely R
AK:
Senate race Rated toss-up
open governor race Rated toss-up
US House seat AK-AL (R) rated likely R

Tier 4

VA:
2 key US House seats VA-02 (R) toss-up; VA-01 (R) lean R
D House seat to hold VA-07 rated likely D
MN:
open D Senate seat rated likely D
open D governor seat rated solid D
US House opportunities MN-01 (R) likely R; open MN-02 (D) likely D
CA:
try to get rid of some of our Rs in the US House of Representatives (2022 win % are much less relevant post Prop.50 redistricting):
Toss-up districts: CA-22 (Valadao-R),
Lean-D vulnerable: CA-13 (Gray, won by D+0.08%), CA-45 (Tran, won by D+0.2%),
Lean-D flip: CA-48 (Issa)
ME:
flip R Senate seat rated as likely R (Susan Collins won by 8.6% in 2020)
defend D governor rated likely D
key US House seat toss-up ME-02 (D)

Why make an electoral plan? One of the core goals of this group has been preserving and driving electoral change. We will continue to do what we have been good at doing: registering, informing, and persuading voters by postcards, letters, and phone calls. Despite the heartbreaking losses of 2024, all the research I've seen says that these strategies work (as part of a larger program of messaging, persuasion, calling, canvassing, and fundraising, of course!).

This doesn't prevent us from doing other important work: to preserve our ability to make electoral change and generally resist Trump's destruction of America. This involves educating the public on the harm being done, especially in key states, collaborating with other local groups to take direct action through protests and other civic actions, training on the best organizing and outreach methods, and more.

What is this electoral plan based on? The tiers reflect an overall prioritization after weighing several important factors, including competitive statewide races, US House and Senate opportunities, state-legislative opportunities, and the broader strategic value of work in each state. There is no single rule that defines a tier; the tiers are simply the resulting work buckets after those factors are considered together. I base the plan on research from Cook's Political Report, The Downballot, States Win, Swing Left, polling averages, and other sources.

Last updated September 18, 2026.